Every so often an event forces us to stop and ask the hard questions. The global investment landscape is shifting in terms of geopolitical tensions, economic adjustment, and foreign capital retreating from emerging markets. These aren’t just headlines; they’re signals. Signals that the rules of the game are changing.
I’ve been in this industry long enough to know that uncertainty isn’t new. But this moment feels different. It’s not just market jitters or a passing cycle; it’s a major change of how capital moves, who controls it, and where the real opportunities now lie.
So, I find myself asking; what does this mean for South African investors? More importantly, what does it mean for those of us who have always seen the potential in alternative investments?
For years, global capital dictated the terms. We watched as foreign investors poured in when the conditions suited them and retreated at the first sign of trouble. Now, that cycle is shifting, this could be the moment local investors step up, shaping the next phase of South Africa’s economic trajectory.
Will BRICS partnerships move beyond rhetoric to become a defining force? Will local capital finally recognise that waiting for external validation is no longer the only way forward? And for those of us in alternative investments, are we ready to take the lead in this new reality?
I see this as evolution. A moment of discomfort, yes, but also a moment of immense opportunity. Investors who thrive in uncertainty are not waiting for the old world to return. They’re looking at the cracks in the foundation and seeing the gap for something new.
Private equity: A quiet but powerful shift
The public markets have always been the most visible reflection of economic sentiment; reactive, emotional, driven by short-term shocks. But private equity is different. It doesn’t move with the whims of the news cycle. It’s built on conviction, long-term strategy, and the ability to spot value and identify trends.
A 2023 study by the African Private Equity and Venture Capital Association (AVCA) found that private equity investments in Africa delivered an average internal rate of return (IRR) of 18%, outperforming public markets in the region. That’s not just resilience, that’s foresight. And right now, as valuations adjust and international players hesitate, I see local investors filling the space these players once dominated.
Infrastructure: The Baobab of investment opportunities
I keep coming back to South Africa’s infrastructure challenges, not as a problem, but as an untapped investment opportunity. Our energy crisis isn’t just a challenge; it’s a trillion-rand roadmap. Infrastructure investments remind me of the Baobab tree – deep-rooted, long-lasting, and essential to the ecosystem.
According to the South African Renewable Energy Council, South Africa’s renewable energy sector alone has attracted over R209 billion in private investment since 2011. And we’re just getting started. The need for energy security, transport development, and digital infrastructure is undeniable. While some wait to see how global markets respond, I see local investors positioning themselves to invest. The rewards will be there for those who step up.
Alternative credit: When traditional finance pulls back, opportunity steps in
Every time the traditional banking sector tightens its lending criteria; it creates a gap. And where there are gaps, there are opportunities. Businesses don’t stop needing capital, they just look elsewhere to find it. Private credit and alternative lending platforms are no longer just niche players; they’re becoming the backbone of capital flow.
A 2024 report by the Emerging Markets Private Credit Association shows private credit in emerging markets has grown by 20% annually. That’s not a temporary shift; that’s a structural change. As banks become more risk-averse, investors who think differently will find themselves at the centre of an evolving financial ecosystem.
So, what will we do with this moment?
I ask this as someone who has spent years watching markets move, watching investors hesitate, and watching those who take bold but calculated action come out ahead. The world is changing. The safety nets of the past are disappearing, and in their place new opportunities are forming.
The question isn’t whether alternative investments will survive. They certainly will!! The real question is: who will recognise the opportunities and act on it?
At Grovest, we are moving with the shifts, positioning ourselves and our investors to lead in this evolving landscape. Because in investing, as in life, the ones who adapt aren’t just the ones who survive. They’re the ones who thrive.
Jeff Miller
CEO & Co-founder, Grovest